Fed hawks give support to USD

Written on 05/30/2023
Team UCapital 24


Rising US yields continue giving a decent support to the US dollar; the US dollar index is now pushing above the minor 23.6% retracement on September to April retreat.  

The USD/JPY consolidates above the 140 mark, yet the recent fall in US-Japan 10-year bond spread hints that the potential for a further rally above 140 could be limited. The price could soon peak and return toward the 200-DMA, near 137.  

The EURUSD. on the other hand, tests 1.07 to the downside.  

This week, the US jobs data will reveal whether the US jobs market loosened or not. According to the consensus of analyst forecasts on Bloomberg, the US economy may have added around 180K new nonfarm jobs in May. 

But for the last 13 months, not a single time the NFP number was lower than the forecast, and not a single time was it below the 200K mark. Maybe the 14th time is the charm!  

Another month of strong US jobs data, and solid wage growth should further fuel the Fed rate hike bets and support the US dollar. In which case, the EURUSD could extend losses below the 1.07 mark, and USDJPY could extend rally above the 140 level.