OPEC pricing power

Written on 08/01/2023
Team UCapital 24

It’s been a positive start to the year's second half for many global asset classes, with a soft landing and peak rates being the dominant narrative.

"For the second month in a row, equities have seen significant gains and remain at the top of the scoreboard for global assets. This marks the best year-to-date performance for global equities (MSCI World) since the Global Financial Crisis and is among the strongest showings for equities across all major developed markets," SPI Asset Management analyst Stephen Innes  said.

Oil was the biggest gainer in July, wiping out all its cumulative losses from H1 to go flat on the year.

"The gap between analysts' expectations and market pricing has narrowed considerably, but maybe a bit too fast. Oil prices have rallied over 17% since mid-June due to OPEC pricing power and as cross-asset traders throw in the towel on negative US growth views."

"A less pessimistic macro outlook and a bit of "FOMO" swing in positioning have also helped fuel the rally. CTA positioning has likely recovered, too, with oil prices breaking through crucial moving average resistance levels."

"However, the significant rise in OPEC spare capacity over the past year and the possibility of this strong rally skewing the risks of Saudi Arabia reversing production cuts will rise exponentially the closer Brent moves to $90 per barrel."