Yes, it is very easy to disagree about the suitability of the ADP employment report as an indicator for the official labour market.

However, it is hardly surprising that the dollar was able to benefit from the strong ADP result yesterday as the data confirmed the recent impression of an increasing economic divergence between the US and Europe.

Whereas the headwinds for the economy in Europe are increasing, the US economy is remarkably resilient.

That means the risks for monetary policy are also shifting towards a relatively more hawkish Fed short-term. For the time being, this is likely to limit EUR/USD to the upside.