Key Global Events

Futures on Wall Street turned positive (Nasdaq +0.96%) managing a rather hawkish Fed. Futures point to a higher open on Wall Street, after two consecutive sessions of declines. Analysts reflect on the words of the "hawk" James Bullard, which also caused the increase in government bond yields.

At 1.45 pm the Ftse Mib remained in tune, gaining more than 1%, in line with the major European price lists, also thanks to the weakness of energy raw materials thanks also to a warm autumn. American WTI oil drops 0.8% to 80.99 dollars a barrel, European gas traded on the TTF in Amsterdam drops 2.7% to 109 euros a megawatt now.

Christine Lagarde, speaking this morning, spoke of an "increased risk of recession" and reiterated the need to "further raise rates", but without suggesting further accelerations. This reinforces the hypothesis, circulated as an indiscretion, that the Eurotower may decide to raise the cost of money by only half a point in December (barring surprises on the next inflation reading).

In terms of macro data, a series of interventions by members of the ECB and the BoE should be reported on Friday 18 November 2022. At 9:30 the one from the governor, Christine Lagarde, is expected, at 14:15 that of Knot (ECB).

Forex & Commodities

On the currency front, the euro rose slightly to 1.037 dollars, gas stable at 112 euros per MWh, with oil that seems to have arrested its descent: Wti at 882.06 dollars (+0.44 percent).
The single currency was weak, while the Chinese yuan and the Japanese yen appreciated sharply.

Index – the Tokyo Stock Exchange finished just below parity with Japan which is dealing with record inflation since 1982, in a context of weakness of the yen against the dollar. The Nikkei lost 0.11% (-1.28% for the whole week) and the Topix index stagnated (+0.04% to 1,967.03 points).
Hang Seng down 0.30%.
Wall Street closed yesterday (S&P500 -0.31% Nasdaq -0.35% and Dow Jones -0.02%).

Key Macroeconomic Data

After the declines on the eve, mainly due to the words of the Fed's "hawk" James Bullard, the European stock exchanges are trying to close the week on the upside.

JAP - a record inflation since 1982, October National General Consumer Price Index (annual) rose 3.6% (consensus 3.5% and prior 3%).

UK – UK retail sales rose 0.6% in October month-on-month and fell 6.1% year-on-year. Both figures beat market expectations.

US – October Existing Home Sales (4:00pm).