Key Global Events
The OECD estimates do not slow down the stocks that much, Milan rises by 0.61%, the Dax in Frankfurt by 0.23% and London by 0.56% while Wall Street futures which rise by around 0.5% minutes after opening. In the absence of relevant macroeconomic data, investors are mostly waiting for tomorrow's Federal Reserve minutes while Wall Street will remain closed on Thursday.
The OECD released its economic forecast update on Tuesday. Global growth is expected to slow to 2.2% in 2023 from 3.1% this year, before accelerating to 2.7% in 2024, according to the latest Economic Outlook.
Eurozone GDP growth is expected to ease to 0.5% in 2023 (versus September forecast of 0.3%) from 3.3% this year, with the German economy, dependent on Russian gas, it will contract by 0.3% next year while France and Italy will grow, respectively, by only 0.6% and 0.2%.
The US economy is expected to grow by just 0.5% next year, compared with 1.8% in 2022 and China's GDP is expected to grow by 4.6% (compared to the September forecast of 4.7%) after up 3.3% this year due to pandemic-related shutdowns and weak housing market.
Forex & Commodities
As for the oil price, it appears to have stabilized on the previous day's recoveries after the slide recorded on fears of a further slowdown in the economy and rumors - later denied - of an increase in production. The January delivery contract on Brent rose by 0.79% to 88.14 dollars a barrel and that of the same expiry date on Wti by 0.54% to 80.47 dollars a barrel.
Index – The Hang Seng is the worst index among Asian stock exchanges, the Nikkei is up, driven by energy company stocks. China's four major real estate groups have announced 3,000 job cuts.
Beijing has announced the closure of parks, shopping centers and museums. After a spike in new cases, many cities have resumed mass testing for Covid-19.
Key Macroeconomic Data
Wall Street futures rising by about 0.5% within minutes of opening. In the absence of relevant macroeconomic data, investors are mostly waiting for tomorrow's Federal Reserve minutes while Wall Street will remain closed on Thursday.
EU – November Consumer Confidence (16:00).
CAD – Canadian retail sales fell 0.7% in September, worse than the consensus forecast for a 0.6% drop.